What to watch for against Michigan, a look back at Iowa, plus a new player to add to the prospect list.
Let’s be clear and objective: Iowa lost last weekend’s game - Ohio State didn't win it.
Allow me to state my case. First, a Hawkeye WR drops a TD pass on their second drive of the game and then they miss a 22-yard FG in the third quarter. College kickers probably make 98-percent of their field goals under 30 yards. The Hawkeyes went into The ‘Shoe with a QB making his first start and could have won if it weren't for a couple of unforced errors.
Now there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes got lucky on two plays during their tying TD drive in the fourth quarter. They were lucky that DE Nathan Williams was offsides after OLB Thaddeus Gibson returned an off-target screen pass for a TD. And they also benefitted by two Buckeye defenders knocking an easy INT into the air for Iowa TE Tony Moeaki to come down with for a 16-yard gain. K Devin Barclay did miss a 47-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, but that would not have been a gimme kick even for the injured Aaron Pettrey.
For some reason, the Buckeyes really didn't blitz the young Hawkeye QB until that final TD drive in the fourth quarter. They really did not get any pressure with just their four DL, except for one play in the late second quarter DT Doug Worthington destroyed the Hawkeye center, forcing a high throw for an INT off a deflection. Uncharacteristically, they gave up two runs over 14 yards and two long pass plays (55 yds and 33 yds) - both in the second quarter. However, the Buckeyes red zone defense was dominant in this game. And OLB Ross Homan played a great game. He is really becoming an excellent all-around player.
When was the last time the Buckeyes completed seven passes among their RBs and TE in a game? The Hawkeyes played their safeties deep, thus denying the long pass play opportunities. QB Terrelle Pryor really made good decisions with the football in this game. He made accurate throws in the underneath-to-intermediate areas without trying to force balls into bad situations. He really showed great maturity and good judgment. He also made some very accurate throws from the pocket with good passing mechanics. Maybe the way he has played in the past four games is evidence that the young Buckeye QB has finally matured and understands how to play the position effectively.
And finally, I must beat the dead horse once again. It is true LT Jim Cordle battled on every play against a superior player in Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn. His effort and unselfishness to play out of his natural position is to be applauded. But please don't say that he played well. That is simply not being honest or accurate. Clayborn had 12 tackles, three tackles for loss, a sack, and tossed Cordle aside on nearly every play. Cordle did hook him inside on RB Brandon Saine's 49-yard TD run in the fourth quarter, though.
Scouting the Wolverines:
This is the biggest game of the year for the Wolverines. They have had a disappointing season both on and off the field. The best way for them to finish their season is to beat the Buckeyes in the Big House for a chance to go to a bowl game. The Bucks are going to get the best effort from the Wolverines this Saturday. They had better not be overconfident.
If Clayborn had a great game last week, as detailed above, then prepare yourselves for a dominant performance by DE Brandon Graham of the Wolverines. If he is left to be single blocked by Cordle, RT J.B. Shugarts, or RT Marcus Hall, the Bucks will be in big trouble. Graham is a better all-around player than Clayborn. He is more free to shoot the gap within their scheme and is more explosive off the edge as a pass rusher.
If Pryor can get some time, then he should be able to find open receivers downfield. The Wolverines have blown coverages and have had personnel problems in their secondary all season. I really like their match-ups, if they go with a three WR set with Saine in the backfield and Ballard on the line of scrimmage to help block the edge in pass protection.
The Buckeyes defense needs to prepare for the hurry-up, high-tempo, spread offense of the Wolverines. They will likely try to duplicate the success that Purdue had five weeks ago against the Buckeyes, and they have the QB and skill players to perhaps pull it off. If the Buckeyes rush three and drop eight back into coverage, QB Tate Forcier will be able to pick apart the soft spots of their zone defense underneath or else pull it down and run for positive yards. If the Buckeyes blitz five or six rushers, watch out for Forcier running or else completing a short pass, allowing his receiver to make yards after the catch. They are a dangerous offense when in-synch.
And a week after giving up a kickoff return for a TD, the Buckeyes face WR Darryl Stonum, who already has a 94-yard kickoff return TD this season. The Wolverines also have the best punter in the Big Ten, so there will be few chances for returns for WR Ray Small this week. They might be better off in trying to go all-out to block Michigan's punts, rather than in trying to set-up returns.
OK, that is behind us ... back to the countdown.
Last week, I gave you my top-rated draft eligible Buckeye: Kurt Coleman. But since we began the countdown, there is one Buckeye I did not include who I now believe has an NFL future. Here is a report on him and next week we will re-issue the rankings based on the entire regular season of film.
Name: Austin Spitler
Position: SLB/MLB
Height/Weight/Speed (40 time): 6-foot-2 /234 lbs./4.75e
Career thus far: To date, Spitler has played in 46 games nine starts at strong-side LB - all coming this season. He missed three games due to a knee sprain back in 2008. He has 78 tackles, 8 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 PD thus far in his career.
Strengths: Size; arm length; positional versatility (SLB/MB); instincts vs. the run; strength at the point of attack competitiveness/effort/toughness in his play; underneath zone anticipation skills; special teams coverage value
Weaknesses: Athletic ability; play speed; lateral range; m/m cover skills; tight hips/transition/cod ability in space; tackling on the move in space; production mostly due to not being blocked; pass rush ability; limited career production
Summation: Spitler is a first-year starter at strong-side LB. He served as the back-up MB the previous three seasons, while playing on every special teams unit. He has a good frame with above average arm length, good overall upper/lower body thickness and definition, and little growth potential for the position at the next level. He has only average overall athletic ability, lateral range, and play speed to develop for the position at the NFL level. He has above average foot quickness with tight hips, which really limits his ability to quickly change direction on the move.
He has decent strength to hold the point of attack against the TE on the line of scrimmage. However, he is inconsistent in using his hands to shed quickly once engaged with the blocker. He is a strong, wrap-up tackler within the box, but struggles to secure the tackle on the move in space. He aligned at MLB some against New Mexico State and looked very instinctive, comfortable, and productive. He is a competitive, physical, and tough run defender.
He comes off-the-field for their sub packages. He is not a better coverage player then the other two linebackers, so he goes to the bench. He does show some underneath zone anticipation ability and awareness off play-action. However, he struggles to get depth quickly in his zone drop outside a short area. He lacks the ability to cover a RB/TE/slot WR in m/m coverage effectively. He gives a strong effort to rush the QB, but lacks the speed, burst, and cod ability to be real effective at it. He is also a solid and productive special teams player.
NFL Comparison: He reminds me of a combination of former Buckeye Robert Reynolds, who was a fifth round pick by the Titans back in 2004 and former Hawkeye Mike Humpal, who was a sixth round pick by the Steelers in 2008.
Draft projection: Spitler should be a solid seventh round draft choice due to his ability to serve as a back-up at both MLB and SLB on defense, while being a core member of the special teams as a rookie. His natural position is MLB in my opinion. He would best fit as a MLB for a team that employs a 3-4 base defensive scheme. He lacks the athletic upside to ever develop into a starting player at the NFL level, but could serve as a productive back-up for several seasons.
Response to your comments:
From cpistol: Bucknatty: I agree that statement was a little too far…I agree with all of Matt's evaluation except for the fact that Coleman can’t develop into a quality starter. He may never be an NFL star…but a quality starter is certainly within his grasp I belive. Anyone who doesn't believe so should check the NFL rosters and see some of the guys starting at safety. My team (Cowboys) for one has two guys starting at safety that I know Coleman could be just as good as.
My take: The safety position at the NFL level has changed over the past five years. With NFL offenses going to so many shotgun and multiple WR formations, safeties have to be better coverage players now. The big, strong, intimidating strong safety, who can't run or cover very well is simply too great of a liability to play anymore. While I know Coleman is a good college player and pro prospect, I cannot see him being a quality NFL starter. He might start at some point, until they can find someone better. That's just my opinion. I can certainly be wrong.
From Bucksfan2008: I’m going to have to disagree with a few things.. but one of the big ones for me is that you think Iowa has the most talented and best coached O-line… one could argue that USC's was just as talented and well coached. And we dominated them for 98.3-percent of the game.
My take: You have helped me make my point with your argument. USC gets much more-heralded recruits than Iowa. You would have to agree with me on that one. Just look at the two games between USC and Iowa. The Buckeyes played much better and had more success against the USC offensive line than they did this past week against Iowa. Iowa does a great job of teaching fundamentals and developing players all along the line. The Hawkeyes prove it every season and every NFL draft. Head coach Kirk Ferentz used to coach the position in the NFL. They may not have great WRs, QBs, or RBs every year but they will have an effective OL as long as Ferentz is there. I promise you that.
Matt Littlefield spent the past six years as the Midwest area college scout for the Kansas City Chiefs. Prior to that, he worked three years in the pro personnel department of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He spent the previous three seasons assisting the coaching staff in St. Louis. Post your questions for Matt in the comments section of this blog!